What ETFs allow investors to make directional bets on long term interest rates?

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On Nov 8, 2008 7:14 pm KKGNOM said:

Are there any ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) that allow you bet on the direction of interest rates. If I believe that the government is going to need to increase long term interest rates , what's the investment vehicle to make money? Someone had indicated that the way to do that is to short tbills? Does that sound right?

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(3) Answers

Staff
On Nov 11, 2008 10:06 am Kristen said:

Hi there,

An investment consultant who I used to work with suggests checking out the two ProShares Short Fixed Income Funds if you want to make this play. Go here and scroll down to the fixed income section to find them. These are "ultra" short funds - meaning that they move twice as much as the market in the opposite direction.

A few words of caution: this might be a good play if you have strong conviction on a major market trend, a gambling instinct and can handle the volatility. Shorting can be a risky, even nasty, strategy. Be sure you understand what's at stake before you put your money down. If you decide to place this bet, you might want to start with a small amount to get a feel for how these funds move.

I hope this helps.

Kristen

Staff
On Nov 11, 2008 10:30 am Kristen said:

Here's some more good reading for you from PIMCO.

Guru
On Nov 12, 2008 2:14 pm Michael said:

KKGNOM,
Indeed, as Kristen pointed out there are some funds and ETFs that will allow you to do this. You can search around for some "Rising Rates Funds" and other similar investment vehicles. These funds effectively short the bond market - and since bond prices decline when rates rise, a short bond position would stand to make money in a rising interest rate environment.

That being said, a few other important points to consider:
1) There is still risk interest rates can go the other way. Although it is true that significant government bond issuance can cause rates to rise, it is also true that interest rates tend to fall in deflationary environments. There are always two sides to any investment story!
2) If you are looking at shorting bonds in some manner, be certain to understand the duration of the position, which is essentially how much the price will rise or fall in response to a 1% interest rate movement. Some bond funds will be much more volatile than others. At least be certain you know what you're in for!
3) Along with varying duration, the underlying bond positions may vary in the maturity of the bonds themselves (in point of fact, maturity and duration are related). The issue here is that interest rates can exchange different changes at different maturities. For instance, if long-term rates rise, but short-term rates don't move much, you'll need to be shorting long-term bonds to make money. Of course, the reverse is true if it's short-term rates that rise but long-term rates don't. So again, be certain you really understand what you're shorting, and likewise what interest rate changes you're forecasting and why it would apply to that particular segment of bonds.

I hope that helps a little!

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