Every day I read about whether housing has hit bottom based on this indicator or that housing index.  While these high level tools can be effective for forecasting certain economic activities, they often look in the rear view mirror. They are mostly measures of what has happened in the economy vs. what is happening now.

As the owner of a mortgage company in one of the epicenters of the housing crisis—the great state of Arizona, I have strong anecdotal evidence that housing is in the process of bottoming. It seems that perhaps Obama’s housing plan might be working —at least here in Arizona.

You see, unlike most real estate economists, I have the added luxury of being the “man on the street” as it were and therefore am privy to data that has not yet found itself into the numbers. Yesterday, my firm received several phone calls from clients we have pre-approved to buy a home. They called my team to express their frustration with the fact that they cannot buy a house. Why you ask? Simple. They are getting outbid by multiple parties for these homes. Not just one or two offers, but often 3,4 or even 5 offers! You may be saying “So what Steve? That is one day—it could be a fluke”. Well, let me tell you, after those calls I became curious. I started speaking with my underwriters and loan officers and they all said that for about the past month, they have been seeing this phenomenon somewhat frequently.

So far this has not meaningfully translated into the housing numbers here in Arizona. However, the anecdotal evidence seems to be building that buyers are starting to come off the sidelines and maybe just maybe a crack of sunlight is appearing from the deepest black. Add to this the fact that mortgage rates plummeted yesterday on news that the treasury would add to their purchase of mortgage backed securities, and you get a nice recipe for a housing recovery. Jim Cramer the host of Mad Money on CNBC predicted a June 30th bottom to housing on his show a while back. Even though he has been getting some flack from his war with Jon Stewart at The Daily Show , if this trend continues, he may just get this one right.

Now, I am not saying that I think that we should all join hands and sing “DingDong the Witch is Dead”. There are some real risks to the economy still rearing their ugly head such as rising unemployment. I am saying that this trickle of activity is EXACTLY the type of thing that will begin to stabilize housing prices and lead us out of this housing downturn. Since we cannot have a meaningful economic recovery without a stable housing market, perhaps we are seeing some “mustard seeds” as Larry Kudlow puts it, and that brighter days are just around the corner.

If you have been thinking about buying a home or even refinancing, there are some great mortgage resources here on Filife to help you do that.