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Predictions: What President McCain Would Mean for Your Wallet


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Earlier this week, we outlined 7 things to expect in an Obama administration for your wallet. In a spirit of fairness, we will endeavor to do the same for a potential McCain administration.

Right now, the race does look very much like Obama's to lose, but it's never over till it's over.

  1. A new income tax plan. Sen. McCain promises to make the Bush tax cuts permanent. He also wants to gradually increase the exemption for dependents to $7,000 from $3,500 over time. Sen. Obama's plan of reducing taxes is more targeted to the less wealthy.
  2. Investment taxes down. Sen. McCain favors a short-term reduction in the capital-gains tax rate to 7.5% from 15% and an increase in deductions from losses in the stock market. He has no plans to raise taxes on qualified dividends.
  3. Lower health-care costs. Both candidates are taking aim at health-care costs. Sen. McCain favors a refundable tax credit that could also be used in health-savings accounts.
  4. Stock market rally. The argument that "relief" over the election's conclusion will boost stocks applies to Sen. McCain as well as Sen. Obama. Given the economic backdrop, such gains will likely be short-lived.
  5. Deficits likely to rise. Both candidates have been a bit hazy on how they will fund their initiatives, though Sen. McCain counts more heavily on mystical cost-cutting and loophole closing than Sen. Obama. This is because Sen. Obama has pledged to raise some taxes, while Sen. McCain has declined to do so.
  6. Trade. Sen. McCain has articulated more of a free-trade approach than Sen. Obama, but this issue has not gained a lot of attention since the primary battles earlier this year.
  7. The X factor. Even if Sen. McCain pulls off a surprise upset (based on the polls at this point), he would face a Democratic Congress that is likely to have more votes than before. And this congress would be smarting quite a bit from an unexpected Obama defeat. This means that Sen. McCain would have his work cut out for him if he wanted to try and push through his tax, health-care and other proposals. Trade agreements would also be difficult to pass. Gridlock would most likely be the order of the day.

What do you think will happen on Tuesday? We'd love to hear from you!

-- Dave Kansas

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