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Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP
FiLife Contributor

Style Drift: "Hail Mary" Investing


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The mutual fund investing game is extraordinarily competitive. According to The Financial Times, there were 69,032 global mutual funds at the end of 2008. With the extreme competitiveness comes lucrative compensation structures if you can win (outperform). I should know, I was a fund manager for many years. However, the compensation incentive structures can create style drift and conflicts of interest. You can think of style drift as the risky “Hail Mary” pass in football: you are a hero if the play (style drift) works, but a goat if it fails. When managers typically drift from the investment fund objective and investment strategy, typically they do not get fired if they outperform, but the manager is in hot water if drifting results in underperformance. Occasionally a fund can be a victim of its own success. A successful small-cap fund can have positions that appreciate so much that the fund can eventually be defined as a mid-cap fund, which is a nice problem to have.

Drifting Issues


Why would a fund drift? Take for example the outperformance of the growth strategy in 2009 versus the value strategy. The Russell 1000 Growth index rose about +28% through late October relative to the Russell 1000 Value index which increased +14%. The same goes with the emerging markets with some markets like Brazil and Russia having climbed over +100% this year. Because of the wide divergence in performance, value managers and domestic equity managers could be incented to drift into these outperforming areas. In some instances, managers can possibly earn multiples of their salary as bonuses, if they outperform their peers and benchmarks.

The non-compliance aspect to stated strategies is most damaging for institutional clients (think pensions, endowments, 401ks, etc.). Investment industry consultants specifically hire fund managers to stay within the boundaries of a style box. This way, not only can consultants judge the performance of multitudes of managers on an apples-to-apples basis, but this structure also allows the client or plan participant to make confident asset allocation decisions without fears of combining overlapping strategies.

For most individual investors, however, a properly diversified asset allocation across various styles, geographies, sizes, and asset classes is not a top priority (even though it should be). Rather, absolute performance is the number one focus and Morningstar ratings drive a lot of the decision making process.

What is Growth and Value?

Unfortunately the style drift game is very subjective. Growth and value can be viewed as two sides of the same coin, whereby value investing can simply be viewed as purchasing growth for a discount. Or as Warren Buffet says, "Growth and value investing are joined at the hip." The distinction becomes even tougher because often stocks will cycle in and out of style labels (value and growth). During periods of outperformance a stock may get categorized as growth, whereas in periods of underperformance the stock may change its stripes to value. Unfortunately, there are multiple third party data source providers that define these factors differently. The subjective nature of these style categorizations also can provide cover to managers, depending on how specific the investment strategy is laid out in the prospectus.

What Investors Can Do?

  1. Read Prospectus: Read the fund objective and investment strategy in the prospectus obtained via mailed hardcopy or digital version on the website.
  2. Review Fund Holdings: Compare the objective and strategy with the fund holdings. Not only look at the style profile, but also evaluate size, geography, asset classes and industry concentrations. Morningstar.com can be a great tool for you to conduct your fund research.
  3. Determine Benchmark: Find the appropriate benchmark for the fund and compare fund performance to the index. If the fund is consistently underperforming (outperforming) on days the benchmark is outperforming (underperforming), then this dynamic could be indicating a performance yellow flag.
  4. Rebalance: By periodically reviewing your fund exposures and potential style drift, rebalancing can bring your asset allocation back into equilibrium.
  5. Seek Advice: If you are still confused, call the fund company or contact a financial advisor to clarify whether style drift is occurring in your fund(s).

Style drift can potentially create big problems in your portfolio. Misaligned incentives and conflicts of interest may lead to unwanted and hidden risk factors in your portfolio. Do yourself a favor and make sure the quarterback of your funds is not throwing “Hail Mary” passes. You deserve a higher probability of success in your investments

More Resources:

Sidoxia Capital Management, LLC is an independent Registered Investment Advisor in California.

Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP® has worked in the investment industry since 1993, and Bloomberg identified him as the second youngest manager among the largest 25 actively-managed U.S. mutual funds in 2005. Mr. Slome has also been a media go-to resource, seen on ABC News and quoted in USA Today, The New York Times, Dow Jones, Investor's Business Daily, Bloomberg, and Smart Money, among other publications. He is also publisher of investment blog, InvestingCaffeine.com and an instructor at the University of California, Irvine teaching an Advanced Stock Investment course through the extension program.

Prior to founding Sidoxia Capital Management (www.Sidoxia.com), Mr. Slome managed a multi-billion mutual fund at American Century Investments from October 2002 through August 2007.  

Mr. Slome earned a master’s degree in business administration with a concentration in finance from Cornell University and a bachelor’s degree in economics from the University of California, Los Angeles.

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Category: Investing, Mutual Funds

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Adam Wiener
Staff
Reply

Good article, Wade. Excellent effort at communicating a seemingly difficult concept for some.

Often, people jump right to number 5 on your list, as the prior steps can seem daunting. A good series of articles might be one for each of the first four steps, breaking down sub-steps for each. Thoughts?

Mutual funds are truly an onion: Once you understand one layer, you realize there's more underneath.

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Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP replied 3 months ago

Thanks Adam, not a bad idea!

~WS

Walt Mozdzer, CFP®Napfa_small
Expert Partner
Reply

Thanks for "peeling back the layers" on a subject most people don't understand. My question to you is "To what extent does style drift occur in time-focused funds that get progressively more conservative as your retirement date approaches?" As you know, these funds are found among the investment options in many 401(k) plans today.

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Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP replied 3 months ago

Walt:

I honestly haven't studied "time-focused" funds closely, but my instincts tell me the issue still applies. Since competition and the stakes are so high, the incentives are still there to cheat - not a whole lot different than steroids in baseball. Many constantly try to gain an edge.

~WS

Last edited 3 months ago by Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP

Tim
Newcomer
Reply

Great article. Just wondering your thoughts about "returns based style analysis"? There is a website called www.styledriftscorecard.com which shows style drift over time for every mutual fund. You can then see which ones are drifting or not.

Also the question on target date funds, I found a target fund, for example, that was a 2020 target date fund but it's best fit index was a 2030 target date index. Which means they are assuming more risk than the 2020 target date fund should be assuming. You'd have to look at the data yourself and you can check on the fund.

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Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP
FiLife Contributor
Reply

Tim:

I wasn't able to access the website you mentioned, however I believe "returns based style analysis" can be an excellent tool in identifying style drift. Like any quantitative model, I strongly believe these software applications should NOT drive the investment decision process, but rather act as tools in narrowing down the opportunity set. Your assumption on the target funds seems reasonable - just need to look under the hood of the fund to determine real exposures.

Regards,
~WS

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