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This comment is from Why I Bought Stocks This Morning

David R Hanson
FiLife Contributor
about a year ago

Ron, congrats on both your fortunate timing and-- much more important--on retaining the discipline to follow through with a sound (if evolving) investment plan. The biggest obstacle many of us face is not that our their investment plans aren't good, but that we never make them in the first place, or we find them too difficult to stick with when greed, fear, or confusion gets in the way.

You asked us to comment if we "believe that stocks are permanently on the decline", since otherwise the only "sensible thing for retirement investors our age to do at a time like this" would be to "just keep buying regularly ".

Well, like you, I have no idea "when the stock market has reached the top or the bottom or the middle." (I wish I did, as that would be profitable knowledge to have!) And, like you, I don't believe that "stocks are permanently on the decline".

And yet, I haven't been buying US stocks for some time now. The reason is that my own investment plan--imperfect as it is, and still evolving (like yours)--counsels me to buy more domestic stock funds only under certain conditions. Since those conditions aren't currently present, I'm investing elsewhere until those circumstances exist once again.

Again, I think the key point is that one saves and invests not via hunch, guess, or fear, but in accordance with a simple, clear plan supported by sound reasoning. It's OK if the exact details of one person's plan differ from those of another's, as those tend to be of secondary importance.

For example, while I probably wouldn't advise it myself, a plan consisting of "maxing out" 401k contributions, then using all proceeds to regularly purchasing stock index funds, might work very nicely for many younger workers like us. Over the long run, such a plan will almost certainly offer far greater returns than the more typical 401k saver will likely ever see.

But whether it does or not, I'm confident that simply following a disciplined plan it will perform much better than the alternative of simply making investment decisions "on the fly" as we go along. Among other problems, such "gut-based investing" leaves us too vulnerable to feelings of fear, greed, and confusion in volatile weeks like this. And researchers have proven quite convincingly that such feelings are quite hazardous to our wealth. :)

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